Once a favored growth stock, PayPal has recently encountered significant challenges, leading to a substantial drop in its stock value. The digital payments giant faces stiff competition, the impact of losing a key client like eBay, and an unfavorable macroeconomic environment, all of which have hampered its growth in active accounts and overall revenue. Meanwhile, American Express, operating with a distinct business model as both a card issuer and payment network, continues to attract discerning, high-net-worth clientele. Analysts anticipate robust earnings per share (EPS) growth for American Express, making it a potentially more attractive investment compared to the struggling PayPal.
The Shifting Sands of Digital Payments: Why American Express May Be a Superior Investment to PayPal
In recent years, PayPal, a prominent player in the digital payments sector, has witnessed a dramatic downturn in its market performance. As of March 7, 2026, the company's stock has plunged nearly 80% over the past five years, a stark contrast to its earlier promising growth trajectory. This decline is attributed to several critical factors: intense market competition, the significant loss of eBay as a primary customer, and a challenging global economic landscape. These pressures have collectively stifled PayPal's expansion in active user accounts and revenue generation.
From 2021 to 2025, PayPal's active accounts only marginally increased from 426 million to 439 million. This figure falls considerably short of its ambitious initial target of 750 million active accounts by 2025, a goal that the company subsequently abandoned. In response to decelerating account growth, PayPal is actively strategizing to boost transaction volumes through its branded checkout platform, the popular Venmo peer-to-peer payment application, its debit card offerings, and its burgeoning buy now, pay later (BNPL) services. These initiatives aim to mitigate the pressures stemming from slowed account expansion. Concurrently, the company is streamlining its operations by reducing its engagement with higher-volume, lower-value platforms, such as Braintree, to stabilize profit margins and transaction take rates. Furthermore, aggressive cost-cutting measures and share repurchases are being employed to enhance earnings per share (EPS) amidst cooling top-line growth.
However, projections for 2026 indicate a mid-single-digit decline in PayPal's EPS, as its branded checkout platform struggles to differentiate itself within a crowded market of similar services. Despite its seemingly attractive valuation at nine times this year's earnings, this discount may be well-deserved given the persistent challenges. Consequently, financial experts suggest that investors might find a more compelling opportunity in American Express (NYSE: AXP), a financial services titan renowned for its robust and distinctive market position.
American Express often draws comparisons to industry leaders Visa (NYSE: V) and Mastercard (NYSE: MA), yet it operates under a fundamentally different business model. Unlike Visa and Mastercard, which primarily partner with banks to issue cards and manage debt, American Express functions as both a card-issuing bank and a payment network operator. This integrated approach means it underwrites its own cards using its balance sheet and generates interest income from these accounts. This structure provides a significant hedge against interest rate fluctuations: rising rates enhance its net interest income, while declining rates stimulate consumer spending, thereby increasing card processing fees.
American Express strategically focuses on a more affluent, lower-risk customer base, a segment that, while smaller in number compared to Visa or Mastercard's extensive cardholder networks, ensures steady and predictable growth. Analysts forecast an impressive 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for American Express's EPS from 2025 to 2028. This robust growth outlook, combined with a trading multiple of just 17 times this year's earnings, positions American Express as a strong contender. Given these dynamics, American Express is anticipated to consistently outperform PayPal and many of its financial sector counterparts for the foreseeable future.
This analysis highlights the evolving landscape of the digital payments and financial services industry. While PayPal navigates a period of significant transformation and market pressures, American Express demonstrates resilience and strategic advantage through its integrated business model and focus on a premium customer segment. Investors seeking stability and promising growth in the financial sector might find American Express to be a more prudent choice, signaling a potential shift in investment preferences from the once-dominant digital payment innovator to a seasoned financial institution with a fortified market position.